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Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports have surged sevenfold since 2023, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery emerging as the key driver of the transformation, according to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA, in its latest analysis published on August 24, said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of 79,000 bpd in 2023.
Of the 561,000 bpd shipped during the quarter, about 350,000 bpd were exported, up sharply from the 46,000 bpd annual average recorded in 2023, data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa cited by the EIA showed.
The development marks a significant shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market, with the country moving from heavy dependence on imported refined products towards greater domestic supply and growing participation in international fuel markets.
The EIA attributed the increase largely to the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery in January 2024, noting that shipments expanded further after maintenance and expansion work at the facility was completed in February 2026.
“With increased supply of petroleum products in Nigeria from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the agency said.
Before the Dangote Refinery came on stream, Nigeria’s existing state-owned refineries collectively shipped less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum products to domestic and international markets.
The EIA said the Dangote facility’s crude distillation capacity rose from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd following the completion of its maintenance and expansion programme, contributing to increased petroleum product availability.
The refinery’s growing domestic role is reflected in intra-Nigerian shipments, which climbed to 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 81,000 bpd in 2025 and 33,000 bpd in 2023.
At the same time, Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product imports fell from nearly 400,000 bpd in 2023 to less than 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026.
Beyond the domestic market, Nigerian refined products are also gaining ground internationally.
Vortexa data cited by the EIA showed that petroleum product exports from Nigeria to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 40,000 bpd in 2025 and just 15,000 bpd in 2023.
Exports to other African countries also increased, reaching nearly 120,000 bpd during the quarter, up from 89,000 bpd in 2025.
The EIA noted that supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz further increased demand for alternative sources of refined petroleum products, providing additional opportunities for Nigerian exports.
The latest figures reinforce the growing strategic importance of the Dangote Refinery to Nigeria’s energy security, foreign exchange position and emergence as a regional refining and petroleum products export hub.
The refinery is, however, not stopping at its current 700,000-bpd capacity.
Dangote Refinery Chief Executive Officer, David Bird, has said the company plans to add another 700,000 bpd of fully complex refining capacity by the end of 2028, potentially taking total capacity to about 1.4 million bpd. The company has already procured long-lead equipment and is awarding construction contracts for the expansion.
If completed as planned, the expansion would further strengthen Nigeria’s capacity to meet domestic fuel demand while supplying growing markets across Africa, Europe and other international destinations.
The EIA report therefore provides fresh evidence that the Dangote Refinery is reshaping Nigeria’s petroleum trade — not only by reducing dependence on imported refined products, but also by turning the country into an increasingly significant exporter of fuels to global markets.
