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Nigeria’s maritime sector in 2026 is at a defining crossroads, shaped by a mix of long-delayed reforms, shifting trade patterns and the disruptive impact of mega infrastructure. With the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy now in force, Nigeria’s election into the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Council (Category C), and renewed attention on digital trade systems, the industry is poised for a year that could either unlock long-promised growth or deepen existing structural cracks.
In the 2026 industry outlook provided by leading a maritime and commercial law firm, Akabogu and Associates, the sector is expected to be driven by four dominant forces: regulatory reform, insurance restructuring, shipping finance realignment and the transformational impact of the Dangote Refinery. Together, these forces are expected to redefine how goods move through Nigerian ports, how ships are financed, and how the country positions itself within the West and Central African maritime economy.
Regulation and the Search for a Market Referee
At the heart of Nigeria’s maritime reform agenda in 2026 is the unresolved status of the Nigerian Shipping and Ports Economic Regulatory Agency (NPERA) Bill. Despite being passed multiple times by the National Assembly, the Bill is yet to receive Presidential assent, largely due to inter-agency tensions over overlapping mandates between the proposed regulator, the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) and the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA).
According to Dr. Emeka Akabogu SAN, Senior Partner, Akabogu and Associates, the absence of a dedicated economic regulator continues to leave Nigeria’s port pricing and service framework in a “grey zone”, with the Nigerian Shippers’ Council currently acting as de facto regulator based on an executive order. For terminal operators and shipping lines, this means tariffs remain loosely coordinated, often contested, and vulnerable to disputes. For importers and cargo owners, it translates into hidden costs, unpredictable charges and declining competitiveness, especially when compared to regional ports such as Lomé, Tema and Cotonou.
The maritime industry has already recorded protests over increment in shipping charges by freight forwarders, importers, manufacturers and other groups under the Organised Private Sector (OPS). It is expected that the signing of the NPERA Bill would be a major inflection point, introducing a neutral “referee” into port economics, enforcing tariff discipline, and potentially restoring investor confidence in Nigeria’s logistics value chain.
Experts posit that volatility in picing as a result of the non-competitive nature of the Nigerian port environment has cost the nation over $250billion losses in revenue not generated.
Insurance Reform and the End of Container Deposits
One of the most disruptive changes to maritime operations in 2026 is the full implementation of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, which repealed the colonial-era Marine Insurance Act of 1962. Under the new law, the controversial container deposit regime long criticised by freight forwarders and importers has effectively been abolished.
Instead of paying cash deposits running into hundreds of thousands of naira per container, shippers are now required to take insurance cover from licensed Nigerian insurers. This shift represents a structural liquidity boost for traders, who can now redirect working capital into core business activities rather than locking funds in refundable deposits.
For foreign shipping lines, however, the transition introduces a new risk model. Rather than holding cash security, they must now rely on claims-based recovery for damaged or unreturned containers, with insurers mandated to settle claims within 60 days. The real test in 2026 will therefore be the operational efficiency and credibility of Nigerian underwriters.
Local insurance firms also face rising pressure, as capital requirements for non-life insurers have been consolidated at N15 billion. Only firms with strong balance sheets and full capital adequacy are likely to benefit from the multi-billion naira premium pool created by the new marine insurance regime.
Despite the humongous benefits of the new container insurance framework, there is a dire need for more engagements with freight forwarders and other core stakeholders for seamless operations. In January, one of the freight forwarding groups, Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON) had written to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy to buttress this call for sensitisation as freight forwarders have become liable for the risks involved in the trucking and other damages to the containers.
Speaking on this, the President of APFFLON, Otunba Frank Ogunojemite, observed that several Nigerian freight forwarders may lose colossal sums under the new container regime, if they are unaware of their responsibility in protecting the shipping containers. On his part, the MSC Africa Regional Controller, Finance and Administration, Mr. Jesse Chege, expressed optimism at the new container insurance regime, even as he posited that MSC has lost over 1500 containers in Nigeria.
Ships, Finance and the New Rules of Capital
Ship acquisition and financing, long constrained by policy uncertainty and weak credit structures, may finally witness tangible movement in 2026. Central to this optimism is the proposed disbursement of the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF), estimated at about $700 million and earmarked for indigenous shipowners.
With the recent launch of a digital application portal and clearly defined timelines—30 days for initial review and up to 80 days for full processing—the Federal Government appears to be shifting the CVFF from political rhetoric to a rules-based financing framework. For operators, the prospect of single-digit interest rates offers a rare opportunity to acquire modern tonnage in a capital-intensive market.
Speaking on this development, the Managing Director of RiverLake, Mr. Bello Tukur, expressed optimism that timely disbursement will help the refleeting of Nigerian Cabotage vessels with many near expiration.
His words: “A lot of ships trading the the Nigerian Cabotage market are reaching the end of their lifespan and this poses more regulatory concerns. It will be helpful to have access to funding via the CVFF to reflect these ships.”
Tukur, however, cautioned that the success of the scheme will depend heavily on the due diligence capacity of Primary Lending Institutions (PLIs). Weak project appraisal could expose the fund to high default risks, especially in a volatile shipping environment.
Compounding this shift is the Central Bank of Nigeria’s banking recapitalisation programme, which sets March 2026 as the deadline for banks to meet new capital thresholds. As major banks move towards a N500 billion capital floor, their single-obligor lending limits are expected to rise, potentially enabling local financing for larger maritime assets. However, smaller and mid-tier shipowners may face tougher governance requirements as banks prioritise “institutional-grade” projects.
Internationally, charter-led financing is also gaining ground. Under this model, financiers focus less on the vessel as collateral and more on the quality of long-term charter contracts, particularly with large offtakers such as refineries. This approach could open doors for Nigerian operators who lack traditional balance sheets but can secure stable revenue streams.
Sustainability adds another layer of complexity. With the Blue Economy Policy emphasising green shipping and ESG compliance, older, high-emission vessels face accelerated obsolescence. Financiers are increasingly linking credit to environmental performance, forcing shipowners to choose between expensive newbuilds and a shrinking secondary market for ageing assets.
The Dangote Effect and the Collapse of Wet Imports
No single factor is reshaping Nigeria’s maritime landscape more profoundly than the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. In its first full year of operation, the refinery recorded over 650 vessel calls, transforming Nigeria from a net importer of refined petroleum products into a regional export hub.
Under the old Direct Sale Direct Purchase (DSDP) regime, Nigeria imported about 52.8 million litres of fuel daily. By late 2025, sea-based imports had fallen to roughly 6.4 million litres per day, as the refinery scaled up gantry-based distribution. For the shipping industry, this represents a loss of approximately 1.2 million metric tonnes of monthly inbound wet cargo—volumes that previously sustained a steady fleet of Medium Range tankers and coastal shuttle vessels.
Indigenous shipowners are the most exposed. The collapse of the import-to-coastal transshipment market has not yet been offset by refinery shuttle operations, leaving many coastal tankers idle. Tank farm owners in the hinterland, on the other hand, are benefiting from the gantry model, which allows more reliable road-based product access.
Regulators are also feeling the pressure. If energy distribution remains largely road-based, agencies such as the NPA and NIMASA risk revenue shortfalls from vessel dues and statutory levies tied to maritime traffic.
Ironically, while the refinery’s long-term strategy is to move up to 70 percent of its output by sea, the short-term reality of 2025 and early 2026 has been defined by trucks, not tankers. This disconnect underscores the transitional nature of Nigeria’s current maritime economy.
Ports, Digital Trade and the Single Window Dream
Port operations in 2026 may finally witness the structural reset long promised by policymakers. The proposed National Single Window Project, anchored on Nigeria’s commitments under the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement and the Nigeria Customs Service Act 2023, is expected to go live in the first quarter of 2026.
If implemented as designed, the system will allow single submission of all cargo documentation across agencies, potentially reducing cargo clearance time to 48 hours. Combined with the abolition of container deposits and the potential enactment of the NPERA Bill, the indicators point towards a leaner, more transparent and more competitive port ecosystem.
For a sector historically plagued by congestion, corruption and excessive bureaucracy, the success of the Single Window could mark Nigeria’s most significant trade facilitation reform in decades.
Will the maritime industry seize the moment?
The year 2026 represents a high-stakes year for Nigeria’s maritime industry. The policy architecture is finally in place: a national blue economy framework, digital trade systems, insurance reform and potential shipping finance structures. The election into the IMO Council further strengthens Nigeria’s global maritime voice, even as it heightens the obligation towards stricter regulatory compliance for operators.
Yet, policy alone will not deliver transformation. The real test lies in execution – whether regulators can rise above institutional politics, whether banks and insurers can manage risk responsibly, and whether market operators can adapt to new commercial realities shaped by the Dangote Refinery and green shipping pressures.
With a depreciated naira boosting export competitiveness and the private sector expanding cadet training and local capacity, the building blocks for growth are visible. What remains uncertain is whether the industry will seize the moment.
