Experts, as part of maritime industry forecast for 2025, have predicted a decline in domestic shipping operations with Dangote refinery and other Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited refineries providing more petroleum products to limit importation for domestic carriage.
This projection was given at a webinar on Nigerian maritime industry outlook for 2025, organised by Akabogu Law and Riverlake Nigeria Limited on Tuesday.
Speaking at the virtual event, the Managing Director, Riverlake Nigeria Limited, Bello Tukur, opined that several factors including the emergence of President Donald Trump and his expected increase in America’s oil production, Dangote refinery operations, NNPC restructured refineries, among others will see less export of Nigerian crude oil and lesser imports of refined petroleum products.
Tukur, who noted that over 70% of the nation’s petroleum products imports were on premium motor spirit (PMS) in 2024, argued that in 2025 road tankers and shortsea barging will take up a large chunk of cargoes formerly carried by indigenous shipping operators under Cabotage trade.
He, however, stressed that with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, indigenous ship owners could reposition themselves to partake in exports of petroleum products to other African countries.
“In Nigeria, PMS importation which has been on a decline since 2023 is expected to continue its dwindling trend. This means ship owners must turn towards exports from the refineries such as Dangote refinery and the repositioned NNPC refineries.
“Shipping rates are expected to decline and overall there is a positive outlook for those who have made the right investment in acquiring the appropriate vessels that could trade under AfCFTA,” Tukur explained.
Also speaking, Senior Partner, Akabogu Law, Dr. Emeka Akabogu, observed that while Dangote refinery provides opportunities for indigenous shipping operations, the African largest refinery has shown more stricter regulations in specifications of vessels.
The veteran maritime lawyer and convener of OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week, expressed doubt about Nigerian ship owners level of preparedness to meet the stringent guidelines for vessels involved in transshipment at Dangote refinery.
Meanwhile, Akabogu maintained that funding remains a major problem for indigenous shipping in Nigeria as the local financial institutions are unable to provide single digit interest financing that operators require.
He equally posited that AfCFTA provides opportunities for ship owners and charterers to explore regional and international financing opportunities instead of relying on the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).
Giving an assessment of ports in the nation, Akabogu posited that Lekki deep seaport has displayed an admirable level of efficiency to impress international shipping companies, therefore, he projected a diversion in dry cargoes from Apapa and Tin Can Island ports to Lekki port.
Similarly, he added that Dangote refinery operations will also lead to a lull in liquid cargo importation at other Lagos ports outside Lekki port.
