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Nigeria is on the verge of a dangerous liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply breakdown, as the much-celebrated Dangote Refinery now stands accused of holding the market hostage.
For eight straight months, the refinery waged a ruthless price-slashing war that forced the NLNG and independent importers out of the domestic LPG space. By mid-2025, Dangote had become the de facto sole supplier of cooking gas to millions of Nigerian homes and businesses.
Now, the refinery has suddenly halted supply without explanation. Industry insiders warn that if importers try to step in, it will take up to 2-3 weeks to land new cargoes – a gap that could trigger shortages, skyrocketing prices, and social unrest.
“This is exactly the nightmare of monopoly,” said energy analyst Yemisi A. Olagunju. “Once one player corners the market, the nation becomes hostage to its operational choices. If this same playbook is applied to petrol (PMS), the consequences for Nigeria’s economy will be catastrophic.”
Already, prices are volatile, and households are bracing for impact. But the bigger scandal, analysts say, is the failure of government regulators to act. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), and even the Presidency have been alarmingly silent as the downstream sector drifts into the grip of a single private player.
Critics argue that this silence amounts to complicity. By allowing one refinery to dictate supply, government agencies have abandoned their duty to guarantee energy security, maintain competition, and protect consumers.
“This is not just about LPG,” one industry stakeholder said. “This is about whether Nigeria will hand over its entire fuel lifeline to one company. Regulators must wake up, or the country will pay dearly.”
As the crisis unfolds, the federal government faces a stark choice: step in with urgent interventions to diversify supply and break monopoly control, or watch Nigerians suffer from shortages and price shocks engineered by market capture.
For now, millions of households wait in uncertainty, while Nigeria’s energy future hangs precariously on the decisions of one refinery and the inaction of its regulators.
